The Nvidia-TSMC Connection

How Trump's move could enable them

Well, Nvidia just got a BIG news this week.

Donald ‘Tariff’ Trump has agreed to let Nvidia export its chips to China. And that could be huge for Nvidia, and other countries that are closely related.

And by closely-related, I mean TSMC, which supplies a lot of the chips to Nvidia.

This week, we take a look at these developments and how Nvidia and TSMC could be on the cusp of a meteoric rise.

Big Hits [U.S.] 💵

Moving on, here are the news that shocked the world…

Tariffs again $SPX ( ▼ 0.01% ) : President Donald ‘Tariff’ Trump has proposed another 30% tariffs on the European Union and Mexico, with the deadline of 1 August 2025 [Read More]

Nvidia $NVDA ( ▼ 0.34% ) : Nvidia is off the hook. Trump has allowed Nvidia to export its H20 chips again to China, after it placed the restrictions in April 2025. [Read More]

PepsiCo $PEP ( ▼ 1.51% ) : In line with expectations. Despite the drop in U.S. demand and tariff concerns, revenue grew by 1% to US$22.7 billion for 2Q 2025 [Read More]

Goldman Sachs $GS ( ▲ 0.34% ) : Man! Goldman Sachs struck gold again. Financial results are above expectations with revenue and profit up by 15% and 22% due to higher trading income [Read More]

Citigroup $C ( ▲ 0.39% )  : Banks are having a good run arent’t they? Citigroup beat expectations with revenue rising by 8% as its banking operations boosted the company with a 16% growth [Read More]

Big Hits [Asia] 📊

Here are the news covering the Asia market…

TSMC: After Nvidia got that good news, TSMC is next. Financial results beat expectations for 2Q 2025 with revenue rising by 39%, boosted by AI chip sales. [Read More]

Singapore economy: Singapore’s economic growth rose slightly to 4.3% in 2Q 2025 from 4.1% in 1Q 2025 despite tariff concerns in the global trade markets [Read More]

Food Empire: Well, Food Empire is definitely making moves. It has signed an MOU with Santan Food Services to develop ready-to-drink beverages [Read More]

Wilmar: Wilmar subsidiary, Lense will be acquiring a 20% stake in Adani’s AWL Agri Business for US$1.6 billion [Read More]

SingTel: SingTel will be working with other Telcos and tech firms in the region to build a new 8.900 km submarine cable system with NEC Corporation [Read More]

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Visual of the Week 📹

Do you know what’s the surprising thing?

About 18% of Nvidia’s revenue comes from Singapore, with 13% and 16% coming from China and Taiwan respectively.

I am sure you all would have heard about the fact that the Trump has allowed Nvidia to sell its chips to China again.

While we have all been bombarded by news on Trump’s tariffs, I figure this will be a good time to get back down to basics.

Here’s what I think will be useful:

  1. How selling to these countries could be good for Nvidia?

  2. How are other companies benefitting from Nvidia’s chips?

Firstly, Nvidia’s exposure to the U.S. market has actually increased over the years. The U.S. made up about 30% of Nvidia’s revenue in 2023 (as of January 2023), but has grown to 47% by 2025 (as of January 2025).

Part of this is due to the U.S. government imposing export restrictions on chips exports (yes, even Biden did this), but most of it can be attributed to the meteoric rise in demand from U.S. companies as the AI sector boomed.

However, the danger now is that AI demand for U.S. specifically could be in danger due to Chinese AI technology that has lower cost and comparable performances.

It might be good to diversify now to other revenue sources.

Secondly, let’s look at Singapore’s contribution and contextualise the 18%. Most companies that buy Nvidia chips use Singapore as a billing location. Then, most of them will be re-exported to other countries.

Actually, only about 2% of Nvidia’s revenue is derived from Singapore. While this is low, Southeast Asia is emerging as the next hub for data centres. Specifically, Singapore and Johor, Malaysia have attracted significant data centre investments in the past years.

Meanwhile, in Taiwan, the companies that benefit are obvious. They are the ones that produces most of the chips Nvidia has currently.

China, well, this is a bit tricky. Since the export restrictions in 2023, Nvidia has been losing market share there. Huawei instead, became the biggest competitor.

But the recent DeepSeek breakthrough has sparked intense interest in China’s AI sector. Many of its tech companies are going all-in now to invest in AI.

So, here are the companies that I have identified as related to Nvidia’s developments in the AI chip industry

  1. Singapore: CapitaLand, Keppel DC REIT, Digital CORE REIT, MapleTree Industrial

  2. Taiwan: TSMC, Hon Hai Precision, Wistron Corp

  3. China: ByteDance, Tencent, Alibaba

Stock of the Week

TSMC, the partner-in-crime to Nvidia in today’s booming AI industry.

It is headquartered in Taiwan, and is the world’s biggest semiconductor foundry. It helps Nvidia to produce most of its in-demand AI chips.

Why are we talking about TSMC this week?

Firstly, TSMC’s share price has risen by about 7% since Nvidia announced that it can apply to the U.S. government to export AI chips to China.

TSMC is one of Nvidia’s suppliers, so more business for the company.

Secondly, its financial results for 2Q 2025 have exceeded expectations

  • Revenue is up by 39%, boosted by AI chip sales. This could possibly be due to many companies frontloading their purchases before Trump tariffs.

  • Profit is up by 61%.

All in all, while there were some doubts on TSMC’s prospects before this, recent developments have helped dispelled them

  1. Taiwan was excluded from Trump’s tariff letters in early July 2025, which is good news as it continues to negotiate with the U.S.

  2. It still maintains its market leader position in the foundry industry with 67% global market share.

However, risks to the company are still there.

  1. Trump has announced he might impose new global tariffs on semiconductors.

  2. The Taiwan Dollar is stronger against the U.S. Dollar. Generally, 1% appreciation of the Taiwan Dollar leads to a reduction of 0.4% in gross profit margin.

Trading View currently has TSMC at a target price of US$256 with an implied upside of about 4%.

Hope the above is fruitful for you all..

Cheers,
James Yeo